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Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy
Ebook Free Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy
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Review
"Learned, lucid and deeply sobering." (Kirkus)“[A]n engrossing book…Mr. Pollack has produced an account that is mercifully free of swagger. If Congress gets a vote on going to war with Iran, let’s hope that this book is on everyone’s reading lists. It might just change a few minds.” (The Economist)“Pollack has provided a useful briefing for anyone seeking to better understand what drives Iranian policy. Even more, he tackles the nature of the challenge the country poses to the United States. The book proves a valuable tool for pushing back on claims that containment is just a policy of surrender. In making the case here that containment is the worst possible strategy, except for all the others, Pollack has contributed to a smarter, more reality-based Iran policy debate.” (American Prospect)"[T]he great strength of Unthinkable is that Pollack includes enough evidence for those who disagree with him to make their case. That is what makes his book not only informative, but an essential contribution to the debate." (Joel B. Pollak Breitbart.com)One of the Best Books of 2013 (The Economist)One of the 100 Notable Books of 2013 (The New York Times)
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About the Author
Kenneth Pollack is a well-known expert on the Middle East and Persian Gulf and has appeared on The Oprah Winfrey Show, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Charlie Rose, C-SPAN, and NPR. He is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. Dr. Pollack earned his BA from Yale and a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is the author of seven other books on the political, military, and economic affairs of the Middle East, including Unthinkable, The Threatening Storm and The Persian Puzzle.
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Product details
Hardcover: 560 pages
Publisher: Simon & Schuster; 2nd Print edition (September 10, 2013)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1476733929
ISBN-13: 978-1476733920
Product Dimensions:
6 x 1.5 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds
Average Customer Review:
3.7 out of 5 stars
29 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#899,128 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Published in 2013, about a year and a half before the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the "Iran nuclear deal", this book explains the reasoning behind the agreement, although the author was not part of the negotiations.The purpose of the JCPOA was to establish a contractual arrangement with a country that is still not considered trustworthy. What the P5+1 wanted was cooperation from Iran in not conducting activities that could lead to production of nuclear weapons. Cooperation was to be achieved partly by coercion, "sticks" (economic sanctions, assassinations, or cyberwarfare), or favors, "carrots" (lifting the sanctions and other favors). The difficulty was that Iran values its nuclear program highly. An extensive sanctions regime was necessary to get Iran to reduce the program. Years before the start of negotiations, the Bush II and Obama administrations tried various carrots such as proposing an "American interests" section in Tehran, sending personal letters to Ayatollah Khamenei, and muting complaints about the suppression of the Green Movement in 2009. Since these carrots did not produce results, sticks were applied in Obama's second term, culminating in the very severe international sanctions regime in effect up to 2014. The author comments "The Iranian leadership does not seem to believe that it needs a better relationship with the United States and its allies." (p.140)Determined to explore every avenue to an end of uranium enrichment, the author devotes a rather tedious chapter to the possibility of "regime change" in Iran by enabling some dissident group like the Greens in 2009. This has never been tried in Iran before; even the famous "Operation Ajax" of 1953 could not have been accomplished without the assistance of the royalists and military. But Iran is not anything like what it was then. The author considers an Israeli strike, but decides, as do his Israeli colleagues, that it is not likely to succeed and the dangers of failure are too high. A US blockade might cause problems with allies; a US airstrike strike would be more likely to succeed, but "There is the constant problem of secret Iranian facilities." (p.234), An air attack might also raise issues of international law and obtaining basing support from other nations. He offers suggestions on how to make the attack succeed; his proposals reverse most of the actions in the invasion of Iraq. In going to war the offer to Iran "needs to be an ultimatum, not a bargaining position." (p.253) If a land invasion becomes necessary, then the costs and risk go much higher. Perhaps the only appropriate time for a war against Iran would be in the event of an attack against a US facility outside of Iran (p.272).The author's preference, considered in the final four chapters, is Containment. This includes the possibility of invasion. With Containment,the US has can draw on Cold War experience while benefiting from Iran's much smaller size than the Soviet Union. There is already very substantial American naval power in the Persian Gulf so that Iran cannot plausibly threaten most of its neighbors. If a land invasion becomes necessary, then the costs and risk go much higher. Perhaps the only appropriate time for a war against Iran would be in the event of an attack against a US facility outside of Iran. Aggressive military actions that might cause resentment in other countries would be allowed against an Iran seen as the offender. To prevent situations from going out of control, "red lines" should be drawn. Also it's necessary to consider if the resources devoted to containment are overdone, a natural risk if US thinking draws too much on Cold War experience.In an appendix the author discusses a proposed "Plan of Action" similar to the JCPOA. He expects the current regime to collapse eventually, or erode to the point of no longer being a danger.My intuitive reaction to Containment results from the fractured nature of Iran. No matter what many of the plain people of the country may think of the US, many among the ruling class are still profoundly hostile. In this connection it is relevant that Iran has enormous reserves of oil and gas and could easily rely on them for all its energy needs. It's hard to believe that the nuclear program is for energy or science alone. If Iran wanted isotopes for medical or research purposes, they could always be obtained through purchase in the international market. There was no need for uranium enrichment at all since material could always be obtained in, a similar way through purchase. Iran's desire for a nuclear weapons capability is profound. If the country becomes dissatisfied with the JCPOA it can leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In a civil war, the biggest and strongest part of the country (containing the wealthy and profoundly anti-Western Revolutionary Guard Corps) might likely break from the moderates and re-form as a rogue state on its own, ensuring its hold on nuclear resources.To sum up, this book does not deal with the hazards of taking the success of the JCPOA for granted.
Reading this 4 years after this was published and 3 and 1/2 years after the Iran Nuclear deal was signed, I think that Mr. Pollack laid down a thorough and well researched position on how to deal with Iran and their nuclear weapons capability. The problem that come from this book is that some of the chapters and policy he lays out is way to long and way too repetitive. I understand that he has points that he wants to hammer home, but each chapter gives us the same ideas and the same things to try without any new groundbreaking ideas. I feel this book could be 250-300 pages and cover the same amount of material without boring the readers to death.
The bone of contention regarding this book is Pollack's conclusion that the US should strive to "contain" Iran, rather than attack it, even if Iran goes all the way to develop nuclear weapons. While I disagree with Pollack, I still feel quite enthusiastic about recommending his book. The author goes to great lengths to present all sides of an important issue, and he gives the reader every possible argument as to why he (Pollack) may be wrong. It is really refreshing to read a book which is so seriously objective, so thorough, and which avoids the polemics and exaggerations which accompany most other discussions (on both sides of the nuclear argument) of the Iran issue.
Very informative, but a little repetitive. Book could have been shorter.
SUPER BOOK ON A HOT SUBJECT THAT FEW KNOW ABOUT
Good, readable. book by an esteemed author in the field. Clearly lays out plusses and minuses for various US courses of action related to Iran.
In "Unthinkable," Pollack lays out all of the options for dealing with Iran and its nuclear program. The book provides an incredibly comprehensive overview of the consequences of various actions and policies that could be employed against Iran. Pollack's writing is incredibly accessible, by all accounts a quick read, and easy to digest. His argument for containment is somewhat convincing; although it may be hard to digest his staunchly internationalist outlook. Nevertheless, Unthinkable is an excellent source of knowledge for formulating a strategy towards Iran.
Great book must read.
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